Italy beat the deluge and condemn toothless Wales to 14th defeat in a row

Another week, another Welsh defeat, another 80 minutes where men in red gave their best as individuals but proved that their best is nowhere near good enough for this level. A 14th straight defeat, a second consecutive wooden spoon now almost guaranteed. In Roman rain, Warren Gatland’s Divine Comedy descended another circle.

Perhaps the most damning point of all is that this never felt like a contest. Even with so much riding on this result, and even with the weather stifling Italy’s attacking threat, Wales simply failed to manufacture a challenge. Forget about a Plan B, Gatland’s team now appear bereft of any plan at all beyond aimless kicks and toothless carries.

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They almost got off to a dream start when, two minutes after the opening whistle, Tomos Williams raked a diagonal kick to the corner where Josh Adams burst onto the bouncing greasy ball, only to spill it around his ankles a metre short of the line. The Welsh scrum – bullied for most of the game – then coughed up a penalty and three minutes later Freddie Thomas lost his feet at a ruck handing Tommaso Allan a shot at goal for an early 3-0 lead.

Conditions forced the hands of both scrum-halves who launched high balls into the back field at every opportunity. In theory this should have helped Wales find their feet. One-up runners could merely charge into walls or chase after contestable kicks. A curling Ben Thomas penalty drew them level on 17 minutes.

But Italy had another gear and found a way out of the slugfest. Another dominant scrum gave fly-half Paolo Garbisi front-foot ball which he used to dart down the blindside before nudging a grubber for Ange Capuozzo. The flying winger who stunned Cardiff to set up a late winner in 2022 dotted down in style. Allan added the extras from the touchline and made it three from three when he nailed a penalty before the half-hour mark.

For the second week in a row, Wales were ineffective at the point of contact. Taulupe Faletau, playing his first Test since the 2023 World Cup, added some heft, but the 34-year-old could not do it alone. Italy’s ascendency was rewarded with a string of penalties that kept them camped in Welsh territory. When Evan Lloyd lost his feet in his own 22, Allan opened up the 13 point lead they would take into the break.

Wales continued to shoot themselves in the foot, by either failing to execute the basics or choosing the wrong option. When they had a rare opportunity to strike from a five-metre lineout in the first half, they attempted an intricate move round the blindside which the Italians read like a book.

Wales changed their entire front row at once. It didn’t help – Italy won a scrum penalty which Allan generously drifted wide of the poles. The struggling Thomas – who plays in midfield for Cardiff - was replaced by Dan Edwards at fly-half. It didn’t help – the Welsh backline was just as disjointed as it was in the first half as they seemed incapable of stringing together more than three phases.

It was all so predictable, which is not inherently a bad thing. After all, most teams know what France and South Africa are going to do. It’s that Wales’s predictability is now coupled with rank ineptitude. Josh Adams was sin-binned on the hour when he clattered Martin Page-Relo with a head-on-head challenge. Allan, after missing two kicks off the tee, then dinked an extra three points as Wales’ discipline unravelled.

There was the glimmer of a comeback when replacement Aaron Wainwright powered over from the back of a rolling maul with 10 minutes to play. Edwards struck the upright from the conversion which left Wales needing two tries to avoid a first ever defeat at the Stadio Olimpico. They also needed to keep Italy scoreless, which they failed to do when Faletau was guilty of infringing at the back of the maul, illegally disrupting the scrum-half under rugby’s new laws. Allan’s fifth penalty put the game to bed.

Wales spent the rest of the game in Italy’s red zone and sustained pressure saw the prop Marco Riccioni as well as lock Dino Lamb yellow-carded. A penalty-try shortened the deficit to just seven. Better teams might have manufactured a snatch-and-grab draw with the two-man advantage. The best this Welsh team can hope for at this stage is a sorry bonus-point defeat.