The Breakdown: how the 2025 British & Irish Lions may line up in Australia

Front row

The Lions are stronger in certain areas than others and much hinges, in every sense, on Ireland’s front row. No one would quibble hugely if an all-Irish triumvirate of

Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan

and

Tadhg Furlong

pack down for the first Test against the Wallabies in Brisbane on 19 July – but what if all three are not fully firing? The talented, athletic Sheehan is just back from a long-term lay off and injury forced Porter to withdraw from the last Lions tour to South Africa prior to the squad’s departure. The admirable Furlong, meanwhile, has already been hammering away on Test rugby’s frontline for a decade. It underlines the importance of strength in depth, with the Australian scrum much improved. Both Scotland props, Pierre Schoeman and Zander Fagerson, will fancy making the plane, as will the Wales hooker Dewi Lake (current injury permitting) and, depending on England’s Six Nations form, either Jamie George or Theo Dan. Ellis Genge and Nicky Smith are probably contesting the last loosehead vacancy with Ireland’s Finlay Bealham, born in Australia, as the third tighthead.

Related:

The Breakdown awards: best rugby matches, players and quotes of 2024

Second row

The 2025 squad will not be stuffed full of returning Lions. It may even be that Furlong and

Maro

Itoje

are the only starting forwards from 2021 to retain their Test places, making the latter’s experience even more important. Again the Six Nations will be instructive but, at this distance, Ireland’s

Joe McCarthy

and James Ryan are the two main frontrunners to partner Itoje. A decent lineout presence will be essential, with the ex-England lock Geoff Parling now shaping Australia’s strategy in that area, and McCarthy’s impact could be key. The other option involves moving the excellent Tadhg Beirne up from the back-row where Farrell will be keen to start him or opting for Wales’ hard-working Dafydd Jenkins. Either way another mobile and versatile lineout forward will be required with Ireland’s talented Ryan Baird looking to edge out Ollie Chessum, and the evergreen Courtney Lawes.

Back row

Perhaps the trickiest selection conundrum of the lot.

Caelan Doris,

Ireland’s captain, would make an excellent Lions skipper and the consistent

Josh van der Flier

is another shoo-in. Add

Tadhg

Beirne

and that potentially leaves just four more squad vacancies. Only three from Jac Morgan, Ben Earl, Jack Willis, Tom Curry, Sam Underhill and Rory Darge look certain to make it, with Willis’s form for Toulouse so good he will be difficult to ignore. There is just one snag: if Toulouse make the Top 14 final on 28 June the Englishman will effectively be unavailable for the first three games of the tour. That, in turn, could mean him starting the first Test on the bench, with Morgan and Earl taking the early-tour strain. The final slot will be earmarked for a hard-carrying, dynamic No 8 with Aaron Wainwright, Jack Conan, Jack Dempsey, Chandler Cunningham-South, Taulupe Faletau, Taine Plumtree and Tom Willis all potential candidates. Wainwright would boost Wales’s representation while the ex-Wallaby Dempsey could bring useful inside knowledge.

Half-backs

No Lions tour succeeds without a smart, influential pair of half-backs.

Jamison Gibson-Park

has been at the heart of Ireland’s finest displays and England’s Alex Mitchell and Wales’ Tomos Williams are next in line, ahead of Ben White, George Horne and Ben Spencer. Fly-half? Think back to the last Test the Lions played in Australia, in Sydney in 2013, and Johnny Sexton’s influence when the chips were down. Whether or not

Finn Russell

is Andy Farrell’s idea of a perfect 10, both he and Marcus Smith add spark to any side. Either way – and allowing for Smith’s occasional redeployment at full-back – a third 10 with another positional string to his bow will be needed. Is that Owen Farrell, not currently playing Test rugby? Or might Scotland’s Tom Jordan, who can also play 15, be the answer? Ireland’s Sam Prendergast and Ciaran Frawley will hope otherwise.

Midfield

If a team’s strength is best gauged by the names omitted, the 2025 Lions will be impressively strong. Robbie Henshaw, Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slade and Cam Redpath are all seriously talented but limited preparation time and shorter tours make it harder to forge dream partnerships – Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Roberts, for example, in South Africa in 2009. Step forward “Huw-ipolotu” – the Glasgow and Scotland pairing of

Sione Tuipolotu

and

Huw Jones

and the steely Irish combo of Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose. With Russell at 10, the Scotland duo would be accustomed to their conductor’s rhythm. And if things need tightening up and pressure needs applying to the Wallabies’ playmakers then Aki and Ringrose are perfectly suited. If Owen Farrell is missing, though, someone else needs to be versatile enough to fill in at centre. Ireland’s Jamie Osborne is already a player whom Andy Farrell admires.

Back three

Blair Kinghorn

’s form for Toulouse makes him favourite to start at full-back. As with the aforementioned Willis, though, Kinghorn will struggle to feature in the first three games if his club make the Top 14 final. That further complicates Farrell’s task and it could boil down to a couple of straight shootouts: Hugo Keenan or Osborne as reserve full-back and either Jordan or Henshaw in a utility back role. On the wings

Manny Feyi-Waboso

,

Duhan van der Merwe

and James Lowe, if fit, all have the pedigree and strike rate to merit squad selection but the Wallabies’ aerial prowess may count against the brilliant but diminutive Darcy Graham. Farrell might prefer the Canberra-born Mack Hansen, England’s Tommy Freeman or Wales’ Liam Williams.

Possible British & Irish Lions starting XV and bench for first Test v Australia, Brisbane, 19 July:

Blair Kinghorn (Scotland); Manny Feyi-Waboso (England), Huw Jones (Scotland), Sione Tuipolotu (Scotland), Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland); Finn Russell (Scotland), Jamison Gibson-Park (Ireland); Andrew Porter (Ireland), Dan Sheehan (Ireland), Tadhg Furlong (Ireland), Maro Itoje (England), Joe McCarthy (Ireland), Tadhg Beirne (Ireland), Josh van der Flier (Ireland), Caelan Doris (Ireland, capt).

Replacements:

Dewi Lake (Wales), Pierre Schoeman (Scotland), Zander Fagerson (Scotland), James Ryan (Ireland), Ben Earl (England), Tomos Williams (Wales), Marcus Smith (England), Bundee Aki (Ireland).

Rollercoaster ride

The Gallagher Premiership has reached its halfway point but predicting what might happen next grows ever tougher. What to make of Bristol sticking 54 points on Leicester at Welford Road one week and losing 38-0 at home to Sale the next? Saracens, equally, were outstanding at home to Northampton just before Christmas only to

concede 68 points to Bath

last Saturday. In the latter case there was a degree of squad rotation, and an early red card also made a difference. Bristol, meanwhile, look great when their attacking game is allowed to flourish, less so when it is shut down at source. But might there be another less obvious reason for this season’s rollercoaster ride? Exeter’s Rob Baxter thinks so, highlighting the multiple occasions his team have had a shorter turnaround between games than their opponents. He is calling for a more level playing field and believes the authorities need to address the problem. The demands of television make it tricky but in a league of increasingly small margins every second of preparation and recovery time helps.

Memory Lane

New Year’s Eve in 2006 was the final curtain call for the old Lansdowne Road stadium in Dublin. Michael Cheika’s Leinster hosted Ulster before the famous venue was demolished: the modern Aviva Stadium would open three-and-half-years later. Leinster’s 20-12 win was notable for a piece of trickery by Brian O’Driscoll, who fooled a couple of Ulster defenders by apparently lobbing a pass to his teammate Denis Hickie before catching the ball himself and sprinting away down the wing. “A few years ago, I might have had the pace to ‘gas’ them,” O’Driscoll joked after the match. The legendary Leinster and Ireland centre explains his crafty move

in detail here

.

And finally…

Might there be a flicker of new year light discernible in Welsh rugby? Nothing much went right on or off the pitch for long periods of 2024 but the United Rugby Championship table shows Cardiff bucking the trend in third place prior to their home game against Ospreys on New Year’s Day. Another win would hoist them within touching distance of second-placed Glasgow Warriors and further strengthen the odds on them ensuring some Welsh representation in the Champions Cup next season. And help to boost further the morale of their international contingent with the start of the Six Nations championship now just a month away.

Still want more?

Exeter ended a 232-day wait for a win against Gloucester on Sunday and Henry Slade said it was ‘better than sex’.

Robert Kitson reports from Sandy Park

.

Remarkably, a Big Game involving Leicester ended in a draw for the third time in the festive fixture’s 16-year history.

Gerard Meagher was at Allianz Stadium

.

Luke McLaughlin was at the Recreation Ground

for Bath’s biggest win against Saracens: the 68-10 thumping was also the worst ever defeat in the competition for the visitors.